Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
